Fantasy Baseball SP Roundup 7/21: The Gaus That Broke Our Backs
Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher's performance from every Tuesday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Twitch.tv (https://twitch.tv/pitcherlist) weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Kevin Gausman (https://pitcherlist.com/player/kevin-gausman/) (TOR) vs TBR (L) – 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 90 pitches.
I’ve been telling you to keep starting Kevin Gausman (https://pitcherlist.com/player/kevin-gausman/) . He’s not as bad as this. He has these moments. It’ll be worth it. Well, it was difficult writing those italics after his horrible stretch over the last two months. Including tonight’s ghastly 3.1 IP, 4 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 1 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 18% CSW, 90 pitches (L) against the Rays, Gausman has allowed 3 ER or fewer just twice in his last nine games, tallying a 6.56 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 10% walk rate, and 24% strikeout rate in that time. Oh no. Yeaaaaah, it’s bad.
What if I told you he was Singled Out in this one? Eight of his nine hits were actual singles, many on competitive pitches that the Rays managed to dribble for hits or flare to the outfield. No HRs here, but there’s an easy counter: He should have missed the bats entirely. Just five whiffs ain’t the Gausman you drafted.
I can’t tell you why that occurred here. Gausman’s horrific stretch has at least come with a 14% SwStr rate and no game was under 11% before this monstrosity, where he held a 9% per-batter Putaway rate, leading to our bread being eaten as dry as Arizona pavement. Yes, that’s abnormal, yes, Koufax brought his friends for a cruel one on Tuesday, but no, it’s not just luck.
Gausman’s slider is also partially to blame. 2/11 strikes put him in worse counts that allowed batters to comfortably swing at the plate, leading to 0/51 whiffs on his four-seamer. Oh dear. But the reality of it all – Gausman’s four-seamer and splitter are pretty much the same pitch as we’ve seen for ages. Sure, it had a little worse drop tonight and in the last few games, but the splitter had its least drop for two games in May where he returned 1 ER in 12.2 IP.
He’s had a career of ebbs and flows and right now, I’m going to call this the ebb (That’s the negative one, right? Surely it can’t be the flow, that’s when guys are in the zone!). He’s going to face the Sawx in Fenway next time out and I’m still starting him if I’ve got him. You may be inclined to give it a rest until he looks fine – I don’t blame you – but this camel’s back still has room to endure what’s next. (View Game Card) (https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:vxh67fh2qpq74sdmedzbpxt7/bafkreidwksftnvb345yvi6f4mdm2k7w4zpc5v3f646osofhnbmkhzohbie)
Let’s see how every other SP did Tuesday:
David Peterson (https://pitcherlist.com/player/david-peterson/) (CHC) vs DET (W) – 6.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 94 pitches.
Peterson! You dog! Here’s a Gold Star for you as Mets fans 800 miles away, returning just three hits on nineteen balls in play (.157 BABIP) despite 63% hard contact. Koufax must really dislike the Mets, eh? Please don’t do this to yourself. (View Game Card) (https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:vxh67fh2qpq74sdmedzbpxt7/bafkreihrnn4r744yy5sm5nt5b7qumq5mntjujibmfutn5iqihucwl4dvau)
Zac Thornton (https://pitcherlist.com/player/zac-thornton/) (NYM) @ MIL (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 81 pitches.
That’s four games this year with a 1.93 ERA in 23.1 IP. I’m not shocked to see him struggle to find strikeouts with his cutter focus and a poor 42% strike sweeper paired with 41% fastballs coming in at 93 mph. It’s a nice run and he’s obviously sticking around post-Peralta, and even with Peralta as their “#5”. Yes, he’s better than Manaea. He’ll get Atlanta next before the Marlins, and I’m not going for it, personally. Feel free to Vargas Rule it, though. (View Game Card) (https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:vxh67fh2qpq74sdmedzbpxt7/bafkreibcfukdxy75bdtswuviijitec5uitl37q6cu74wva7xdkctvlzkzq)
Kumar Rocker (https://pitcherlist.com/player/kumar-rocker/) (TEX) vs CHW (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 75 pitches.
The final tally was 57% sliders + cutters, but the four-seamer somehow came alive for 4/16 whiffs and the White Sox couldn’t handle the few four-seamers over the plate, while the cutter and slider maneuvered the edges effectively. He’s a 15-team HIPSTER. (View Game Card) (https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_fullsize/plain/did:plc:vxh67fh2qpq74sdmedzbpxt7/bafkreidpa4qbyvn7nr3xuzum67as5vqd2g2w2tfql6vklkgtr5mjbs27zm)
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